IPSO or real danger: expert opinion on a possible Russian offensive on Chernihiv

The expert shared his thoughts on the situation in Ukraine, in particular in the Chernihiv region, and considered possible scenarios for the actions of the Russian troops. He noted that the regime in the Kremlin does not perceive the Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy regions as part of its territory. Even if these territories are occupied, the Russians will leave them at some point, similar to the events after the Second World War in Germany.

Recalling Putin’s recent statements in India, the expert emphasized that the situation becomes more alarming due to mentions of “Novorossiya”, which refers to such regions as Kherson, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. He suggested that information about activity in the Chernihiv region may be part of an information operation aimed at preventing the transfer of troops to Kupyansk.

The expert also clarified that although groups of scouts and saboteurs may appear and cross the border, this does not pose a serious threat to Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In this regard, there are appropriate forces, such as border guards and special units, which are capable of confronting such challenges.

He added that if the Russians begin massing troops, it will be noticeable within a few weeks, emphasizing that the situation is currently mainly an information issue. According to the expert, we should be attentive to the goals that the Russian troops set for themselves, taking into account the information context.