A truce before the end of winter is unlikely: what can force Russia to abandon aggression

The former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba expressed the opinion that the most likely development of events in 2026 will include the continuation of the military conflict. In his opinion, we should not expect a quick end to hostilities, as Russia does not show readiness for real negotiations.

Kuleba noted that the fact that representatives of Russia are returning to communication is not a sign of their readiness for peace. He described them as circus performers, stressing that Moscow is delaying the process and is in no hurry to make a decision.

According to the former head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is impossible to talk about a ceasefire until spring, although under certain conditions, such as the stabilization of the front and serious economic difficulties in Russia, short-term pauses in hostilities are possible. He believes that only in this case the Kremlin can agree to a compromise.

Kuleba also emphasized that the renewal of hopes for a truce looks unlikely today, asserting that the most realistic forecast for 2026 is war.

In addition, diplomats focused on Donald Trump’s potential role in influencing Russian President Vladimir Putin, emphasizing the existence of tools of influence that are not being used to their full potential. He also suggested that the European Union could become an important strategic partner of Ukraine in the long term.

It will be recalled that warnings were previously issued about possible threats from Russia, in particular, about the use of 32 ballistic missiles in the event of an escalation of the conflict.