Ukrainian universities will face difficulties: the number of applicants will decrease significantly

In 2029, Ukraine may face a significant decrease in the number of applicants to higher education institutions. This is explained by the introduction of a new educational model, which arose due to the transition to a 12-year education system in schools.

According to the Ministry of Education and Science’s experts, the problem lies not in the three-year bachelor’s degree but in the reform of the senior specialized school. In 2029, only graduates of pilot schools — about 15,000 people — will receive a 12-year education, while about 200,000 students graduate annually currently.

Deputy Minister of Education and Science Mykola Trofymenko noted that these changes can significantly alter the logic of the admissions campaign, creating a situation of “reverse competition” in which educational institutions will begin to actively compete for applicants.

In addition, demographic and economic factors complicate universities’ financial situations, posing another challenge for the educational system.

The senior school reform, which will start in 2027, provides for 12 years of education. Its first participants will be current ninth-graders in pilot institutions. Under this reform, high school will last three years, with the option to earn a bachelor’s degree in three rather than four years.

From 2030, this model will become common nationwide: 12 years of schooling, 3 years for a bachelor’s degree, and 2 years for a master’s degree. However, some specialties may require more time to study.

In 2029, this educational model will still be in an experimental phase, opening a new stage of transformation in Ukrainian education. Still, there is also the question of how universities will adapt to the decline in student numbers and whether employers will have time to create new requirements for the labor market.