Putin’s truce on May 9: expert opinion on pitfalls for Ukraine

In his blog, expert Mikhail Sheitelman expressed his thoughts on the importance of the week for the peace process. He noted that if Putin does not agree to the US conditions for ending the war, he will face new sanctions that will hit the oil and banking sectors. According to the expert, this forced Putin to announce a temporary lull, which will last until May 10. This step is designed to postpone final decisions for several weeks, hoping that the situation will change, for example, after possible changes in American policy or the emergence of new leaders.

Sheitelman also emphasized two main reasons why this truce is important to Putin. The first is that foreign guests can safely visit Moscow during the parade, which will allow them to feel safe. This is important from the point of view of the Russian Federation’s international reputation because a gathering of this scale could become a military target.

The second reason, according to the expert, is that at the front, the Russian army may have been able to catch its breath, improve logistics, repair equipment, and evacuate the wounded. However, he noted that the ceasefire cannot be short-term – it must last at least 30 days. Inconsistent halts in hostilities can only complicate the situation.

Sheitelman also noted that the Russians are trying to use this situation to pressure Ukraine. If Ukraine refuses the ceasefire, Trump may accuse the Ukrainian side of wanting to continue the conflict. On the other hand, by agreeing to a truce, Ukraine risks allowing the Russians to rebuild their forces and adjust logistics for further actions.