The Kremlin intends to expand its territories: which regions are at risk of being captured by Russia?

The Kremlin is once again expressing its ambitious territorial claims to Ukraine, which significantly exceed the provisions of international peace agreements. According to an ISW analytical report, Moscow considers the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odessa regions to be part of its strategic interests and refers to these territories as “Novorossia”.

American experts drew attention to a recent statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He reiterated that any peaceful settlement must take into account the interests of the populations of Crimea and Donbas, as well as the so-called “Novorossia”. The ISW document emphasizes that Russia considers “Novorossia” part of its imperial geopolitical strategy, which includes not only Crimea and the occupied territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, but also the regions of Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, and Odessa. The Kremlin openly claims that Odesa is a “Russian city” and constantly raises this topic in the context of the future Russian federation.

These statements raise the question: why is Moscow ignoring the US peace plan, consisting of 28 points? According to this agreement, Russia would only recognize the occupation of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions. The plan provided that Russia should give up its claims to the Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. However, Lavrov’s new statements indicate much greater ambitions on the part of the Kremlin.

ISW analysts noted that Lavrov’s mention of “Novorossiya” is not a new demand, but confirms that Russia’s territorial claims go beyond the original 28-point plan. This is likely a preparation for potential negotiations between US representatives and Putin.

Evidence indicates that Russia continues to insist on the annexation of the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. Claims to the Odessa and Kharkiv regions are aimed at strengthening the aggressor’s position before negotiations with the American side. The Kremlin is seeking to expand its concept of “Novorossiya” by ignoring calls for the liberation of occupied territories, which once again demonstrates its lack of intention for a peaceful compromise.

It was previously reported that former NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg identified factors that could prompt Russia to engage in peace talks with Ukraine. Experts also noted that some regions of Ukraine are under threat of a breakthrough by Russian troops.