Pension changes 2026: who will have their payments increased by almost 15%, and who will only feel the effects of inflation

Over the next few months, Ukrainian pensioners are waiting for the recalculation of pensions, and the main question is what level the March indexation will reach. This increase is traditionally the most important, and sometimes the only real increase in pensions in the year.

In 2026, this figure will reach about 14.6%. However, these data are not yet final; the final reports will appear at the end of February, but the guidelines have already proven quite clear.

The indexation mechanism is simple, although not always understandable to the vast majority. It is based on half the previous year’s inflation rate, plus half the average wage growth over the last three years. According to forecasts by the National Bank of Ukraine, inflation in 2025 may reach 9.2%, and wage dynamics – about 20%. Thus, the total figure may amount to the same 14.6%. Previously, experts spoke of a possible 15.4%, but now the estimates look somewhat more restrained.

However, it is worth noting an important detail: indexation applies only to the basic part of the pension, which is determined by the formula. Additional payments, such as age allowances, are not included in the calculation. For example, if a pensioner receives 6,300 hryvnias, of which 300 is an allowance, indexation will be calculated for only 6,000 hryvnias. Therefore, even if the increase appears significant on paper, the actual results may be less impressive than expected.

The March indexation is a major financial event for most pensioners. Other significant changes are unlikely, so hopes are pinned on this recalculation.

As for the minimum pension, in 2026 it is planned to increase it by 9.9%, bringing it to 2,595 hryvnias. This is positive news, because earlier in the budget documents, the possibility of freezing social standards for 2026 and 2027 was considered. However, joy collides with reality: in 2024, prices increased by about 12%, in 2025, another 10% is forecast, and in 2026, 9.9%. As a result, over three years, prices will increase by more than 30%, while the minimum pension will increase by only 9.9%. Thus, the purchasing power of people on minimum payments will continue to decline, leading to even greater poverty among pensioners.

The 2026 budget plans 251.3 billion hryvnias for the Pension Fund. This is 14.3 billion more than last year. These funds will be directed to indexation, increasing the minimum and maximum pensions, and to additional payments for length of service, while maintaining restrictions on super-high payments that exceed ten subsistence minimums.

Thus, the situation looks contrasting. On the one hand, the state is taking measures to support pensioners and increasing budget expenditures for indexation, which may be close to 15%. On the other hand, inflation is exposed to faster rates, especially affecting those who receive minimum payments. Thus, 2026 will be a year of “pluses” in payments and at the same time “minuses” in real life, because for the same money in the store, you will be able to buy less and less.

We also recall that there are circumstances under which the state can cancel the ownership rights to a land plot without explanation, as well as the strengthening of tax control over the rental of apartments.