Prices are rising, but quality is deteriorating: why Ukrainians are paying more for bread

In Ukraine, there has already been talk of a deterioration in the quality of bread, which is associated with a shortage of high-grade grain. Farmers are in no hurry to supply high-quality grain to the domestic market, which is becoming a problem.

Although this year’s harvest was less generous than last year’s, it is still sufficient to meet the country’s needs. The problem is not so much in quantity as in the quality of grain, which directly affects the price of bread.

Yuriy Duchenko, first vice-president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers and director of Kyiv Khlib, notes that the production of high-quality flour is impossible without the use of second-grade grain. However, due to limited supply, mills often struggle to obtain the necessary batches of grain, which can lead to price instability, even during harvest season.

Currently, the cost of a ton of high-grade flour is approximately 15,000 hryvnias, and the first is 14,500 hryvnias. According to forecasts, the price is expected to increase by 2,000 hryvnias by the end of the year. Flour accounts for about 40% of the cost of bread, so a price increase could increase the price of bread by another 5%, which could lead to a rise of 20% by the end of 2025.

Manufacturers have two options: either raise prices or reduce the quality of products. At the same time, exports of Ukrainian goods are growing, as foreign buyers are actively interested in Ukrainian products that meet European standards.

Duchenko also notes that demand for soft confectionery in Ukraine has decreased, while exports of these goods have increased eightfold since the start of the full-scale war. Today, 12% of Ukrainian exports are soft confectionery, while 88% are bakery products and frozen bread.

In Europe, consumers are gradually shifting away from frozen bread and opting for functional, long-term storage products, which may present new opportunities for Ukrainian producers on the international market.