Currency will increase: experts voiced the forecast for the coming days

With the end of August, analysts predict that the period of stability in the financial market of Ukraine will gradually end. The hryvnia has strengthened, with the dollar falling to its lowest value in the last five months, reaching less than 41.5 UAH per dollar.

Causes of hryvnia strengthening

Since the beginning of August, the hryvnia has been consistently expensive. Last week, the cash dollar was cheaper by 8 cents for sale (41.52 UAH) and 3 cents in purchase (41.02 UAH). The euro also decreased by 20 cents for sale (48.45 UAH) and in purchase (UAH 47.78).

Experts associate such a low-demand revaluation with a stable situation in the interbank market and significant NBU reserves exceeding $43 billion.

The situation in the foreign exchange market

In the interbank market, the rate ranged from UAH 41.2-41.4 per dollar, which indicates the end of the summer lull and restoration of business activity. At the same time, the cash market remains low: the volume of transactions is small, which continues to press the exchange rate.

Forecast at the end of August

Economists Andriy Zablovsky and Oleg Penzin believe that by the end of the month, the dollar will remain stable, being within 41-41.5 UAH per dollar. However, with the onset of autumn, the currency factors can weaken. Military expenditures, preparation for the heating season, trade deficit, and increasing internal prices can contribute to slow devaluation.

“Since September, the cheap currency season will end. Towards the end of the year, the course can go up, and in 2025, the devaluation will become inevitable – up to 43.5-45 UAH per dollar,” Penzin predicted.

Is it worth buying currency now?

Zablovsky recommends using the current price level for diversification of his savings:

“The best option is to distribute the accumulation: one third in dollars, one third in euros, and one third in UAH instruments such as domestic government bonds.”

Penzin believes that it is more profitable to invest in government bonds, as the profitability of hryvnia papers reaches 19% per annum, which will block any possible increase in the course in the coming months. Currency TEPs bring less (up to 4.5% per annum), but give additional income from potential dollar strengthening.

Both experts warn that long hryvnia deposits are not the best option now, because the period of stability of the hryvnia is coming to an end.