Prepare for a tough winter: expert identifies areas that may experience power outages

International energy and security expert Mykhailo Honchar forecast the Ukrainian energy situation for the autumn-winter period, noting the possibility of blackouts. In an interview, he drew attention to the change in the strategies of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.

According to Honchar, Russia previously tried to destroy large substations throughout Ukraine, which was supposed to lead to mass power outages and public discontent. However, this plan did not work. In the summer of 2024, the enemy tried to repeat this strategy during the heat, but again unsuccessfully. Currently, the enemy has changed tactics and is targeting local energy facilities in border and frontline regions, including the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia regions.

Honchar emphasized that the new strategy was chosen because Ukrenergo facilities are much better protected, and most of the previous damage has been repaired. He noted that the Russian troops have realized that by spending significant resources, they are not achieving the desired result. Therefore, they are now choosing targets with lower levels of protection, and the regional energy company, unlike the national operator, has paid less attention to strengthening its facilities. Honchar noted that the war continues and new attacks on the energy system are likely. He advises against hoping for a change in the enemy’s intentions and strongly calls for strengthening Ukrainian response measures to be ready for any future scenario.