Dollar before and after the New Year holidays: what surprises await us

The situation in the Ukrainian foreign exchange market remains calm, but analysts say the hryvnia may come under pressure again by the end of the year.

The main risk factors include an increase in imports before the holidays, a decrease in foreign-exchange earnings from migrant workers, a foreign-exchange deficit, and subsequent payments on government bonds.

In November, the Ministry of Finance is to repay UAH 20 billion in government bonds, which may increase demand for the dollar and, accordingly, weaken the hryvnia.

The interbank foreign exchange market has been stable so far, thanks to the National Bank’s interventions, which reached $691 million last week.

According to experts, in September, Ukraine’s exports totaled $2.97 billion, while imports totaled $7.97 billion, resulting in a record trade deficit of $5 billion. At the same time, Ukrainians are actively investing in domestic government bonds (OVDP), the volume of which increased by UAH 2.48 billion in October, 2.5 times the increase in hryvnia investments.

Financial expert Andriy Shevchyshyn points out that the increase in imports and the decrease in foreign currency from migrant workers create a delayed pressure on the hryvnia, which may manifest itself closer to winter.

Forecast for the holidays

Analyzing the situation, experts predict that by the New Year, the dollar exchange rate will remain at UAH 42-43, and the euro exchange rate will be about UAH 49-50. At the same time, a gradual weakening of the hryvnia is possible at the beginning of 2026 if demand for the currency exceeds supply.

Experts advise against panic and to approach diversification of your savings rationally. Foreign currency OVDP can be a reliable tool for preserving capital with state guarantees. Economists also advise buying currency for significant expenses or travel until the exchange rate exceeds 43 UAH.

In particular, they warn that currency fluctuations can significantly erode savings, so it is essential to monitor currency market trends.