The evaders were told that war would not be avoided: Russia would mobilize later

Insufficient mobilization can lead to capitulation, after which a new stage of conscription will begin, already by Russian standards.

The analyst notes that the issue of mobilization is not currently at the forefront, as sources indicate. The President and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, he says, have distanced themselves from this topic, which, according to experts, is extremely important. Meanwhile, in Russia, they have a completely different approach: they actively recruit people into the army, offering financial rewards, debt repayment, the opportunity to close loans, or the chance to get housing. Many Russians are aware of the risks of returning, but they see it as their last chance to escape the financial crisis. Those who refuse are forcibly taken away.

He emphasizes that in Russia, where the population exceeds 140 million, mass mobilization is possible despite losses, because the number of people deemed worthless is very large.

In turn, the expert believes that Ukraine should have reacted differently, but did not take the necessary measures at a stage when the situation had already become critical. As a result, there is an increase in aggression towards employees of territorial recruitment centers, as well as concern among military commanders, who are increasingly dissatisfied with the functioning of the national defense system.

“There will be no mobilization – there will be capitulation. Capitulation, unfortunately, will not bring anything good, because it will lead to the next wave of conscription, but by Russian standards, where brutal methods prevail,” the expert says.

This situation has already become a reality in the temporarily occupied regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.

Chmut emphasizes that responsibility for the mobilization process lies not only with the CCC, but also with higher state structures, including the Cabinet of Ministers, relevant ministries, and local governments.

It was also previously noted that refusal to be drafted in the occupied territories can lead to tragic consequences, and the Russian military continues to use harsh methods of influence on the local population. Leave out the possibility of joining the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine without the CCK’s involvement, as the situation requires quick, effective solutions.