The dollar exchange rate will increase significantly in Ukraine: forecasts until the end of the year

On global financial markets, the US dollar’s exchange rate is highly volatile. However, current changes have almost no effect on hryvnia fluctuations, as expert Oleksandr Martynenko notes in his commentary.

The specialist warned that in 2026, there is a high probability that the National Bank will switch to a policy of managed weakening of the national currency.

“Fluctuations of the US dollar in the international arena do not have a direct impact on the hryvnia exchange rate. In the context of war, a significant external deficit and strict regulatory restrictions, as well as the complete dependence of our economy on international financial support, the role of the National Bank of Ukraine in forming the hryvnia exchange rate is decisive,” Martynenko noted.

According to him, in 2025, the NBU’s active currency interventions kept the hryvnia relatively stable. During the year, the exchange rate changed little, and in December it was fixed at 42.4 UAH per dollar, while at the beginning of the year it was about 42 UAH per dollar. However, this year, according to the expert, the risk of a controlled depreciation of the hryvnia is significantly increasing.

Martynenko noted that there are several objective reasons for such changes. First, the slowdown in inflation creates opportunities to raise import prices through exchange rate adjustments. Second, a sharp increase in the foreign trade deficit requires a reduction in import consumption, which can be achieved through a moderate depreciation of the hryvnia.

In addition, the depreciation of the hryvnia will allow the state to convert international financial assistance more effectively, thereby increasing revenues in the equivalent hryvnia.

According to the expert’s forecast, by the end of the year the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar may increase to approximately UAH 45 per dollar, which would mean a decrease in the national currency’s value by no more than 6% in annual terms.