The impact of the war in Iran on gas tariffs for Ukrainians

The price of natural gas in Ukraine has increased significantly – over the past few days, the market has recorded an increase of about 20%.

Now the cost of a thousand cubic meters of blue fuel is almost 27,800 hryvnias. This is the highest figure since the summer of 2025. In Europe, prices are even higher – gas is sometimes sold for 65.5 euros per megawatt-hour. Experts call the main reason for such a sharp increase the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East, in particular the conflict related to Iran. After attacks on tankers in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, some liquefied gas exporting countries, such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, temporarily stopped shipments.

Energy market analyst Roman Nitsovich from DiXi Group notes that the market often reacts emotionally to such events. He emphasizes that a significant part of the current price increase is speculative in nature, as traders build an additional “premium for supply risks” into the price, reacting to the news.

In addition to geopolitical factors, the seasonal aspect also plays a role: European companies are already actively buying gas to replenish their reserves before the winter season. This leads to an increase in demand and, accordingly, prices.

Experts believe that gas prices may decrease if the situation in the region stabilizes and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is restored. However, even in this case, according to specialists, the market will remain tense.

The situation does not mean an immediate increase for consumers in Ukraine, since the country has a moratorium on tariff increases for the population. This means that prices for household consumers will remain unchanged. However, utilities are facing increasing financial pressure, as the real costs of gas, electricity and other materials are increasing.