The price of gasoline can reach 100 UAH per liter: the impact of world events on the cost of fuel

What changes await Ukrainian drivers in the near future and is it possible for the price of gasoline to rise to 100 hryvnias per liter? These questions were answered by Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center.

Answering a question about the impact of events in the Middle East on fuel prices, Omelchenko noted that global oil consumption is approximately 105 million barrels per day, of which almost 20% pass through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Any aggravation of the situation in this region instantly causes fluctuations in world prices.

Ukraine feels these fluctuations, although with a slight delay. When prices on the world market change, several weeks pass before they increase at gas stations, which is caused by the timing of delivery of new batches of fuel from Europe. However, some companies raise prices a day after the news about changes in the international market appears.

The specialist explains the rapid increase in prices by the subjective approach of business. Some companies may use the situation to increase profits or reduce risks, even if it is not always economically justified.

Is it possible for gasoline to rise to 100 hryvnias?

Although an increase in the cost of new batches of fuel in the coming weeks is inevitable, Omelchenko reassures: the probability of reaching the price of 100 hryvnias per liter is unlikely. The main deterrent is that most companies have already taken into account the potential risks in current fuel prices.

In addition, government intervention can prevent a significant increase in cost. To stabilize the situation, the expert identifies several possible measures:

Introducing a flexible excise tax system that allows taxes to be reduced when prices on the world market increase and increased when they decrease.
Abolishing advance payment of income tax, which can stimulate competition among companies.
Strengthening control by the Antimonopoly Committee to identify frequent cases of market manipulation.
Omelchenko also warns against returning to the price regulation mechanism, as it was in 2022. This approach, although attractive at first glance, could lead to fuel shortages, as it does not encourage the purchase of new batches.

If strict regulation continues, companies may stop supplying fuel to the Ukrainian market, which will lead to empty gas stations instead of affordable prices.