Western intelligence officials: Putin may seek negotiations, but on terms favorable to the Kremlin
Vladimir Putin, the leader of Russia, has changed his strategy in the war with Ukraine, focusing on short-term goals such as holding on to captured territory and stabilizing the domestic economy.
This was reported by CNN sources, who had access to new American and Western intelligence assessments.
This approach contrasts with previous assessments, according to which Putin was confident in his capabilities for a large-scale offensive and the complete capture of Ukraine.
The Kremlin sees this change of position as an opportunity for Donald Trump’s team, which, according to sources, is worried that Putin may now be more inclined to seek peace.
However, Washington does not rule out that this could be a Moscow maneuver. Despite promises that may include the preservation of some of the captured territories, American officials doubt Russia’s possible intentions to achieve real peace. There are fears that even if a temporary ceasefire occurs, Russia could use this time to regroup its forces.
“It seems that he is now seeking tactical gains rather than global conquest,” a Western intelligence official said.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration, threatening new sanctions, is trying to use Russia’s economic woes as leverage. The USUS has also hinted at possible “historic” investments in Russia if the war ends.
“It is important for Putin not only to declare victory at home, but also to achieve tangible results that justify the cessation of hostilities,” a Western official said. “But his long-term goal is to annex territories in Ukraine that he considers part of Russian civilization.”
European officials also noted that the Kremlin would play by Washington’s rules to gain tactical advantages. However, they emphasize that Russia has not abandoned its maximalist goals and hopes to resume active action in the future.
Congressman Jason Crowe recalled that Putin prioritizes control over Ukraine along with maintaining power, so the Kremlin may try to exploit the West’s haste in the negotiations.
On the Ukrainian side, it has become known that the negotiation process emphasizes the need for security guarantees from the US and the EU, even if this involves territorial concessions, to prevent the resumption of hostilities.
One senior US official believes that there is currently no evidence that Russia is capable of completely capturing Ukraine; the front line remains stable, which could be the reason for Putin’s change of strategy.
The five regions where Russia controls the situation, including Crimea, remain the focus of discussion. These territories are key in talks about the conditions of a possible peace.
US Vice President J.D. Vance recently noted that the borders of a new ceasefire could correspond to the current positions on the front, with possible options for exchanging territories.
The issue of international recognition of the illegal occupation is also receiving a lot of attention, as not all European allies agree with the idea of such recognition. Putin has repeatedly stated that Crimea should remain part of Russia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that Moscow seeks international recognition of all five occupied regions, while Kyiv resolutely rejects such proposals.
US Special Representative for Ukraine Keith Kellogg said that the USUS is ready for a ceasefire and is waiting for the Russian side to agree.
“One side is Ukraine. Now the other side must agree on its position,” he commented.
