Prospects for the dollar exchange rate in 2025: what Ukrainians should expect
In 2025, Ukraine is expected to experience a moderate devaluation of the hryvnia due to various economic factors both inside and outside the country, according to economists.
According to Oleg Pendzin, a representative of the Economic Discussion Club, there is a possibility that the dollar exchange rate will reach 43 hryvnias in the middle of the year. The expert noted that in May and the following months, inflation may slow down due to seasonal changes. This will create opportunities for a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia in the summer, which may positively affect the state budget due to the growth of tax and customs revenues in foreign currency without a sharp increase in prices.
Economist Andriy Zablovsky also expressed the opinion that by the second half of 2025, the dollar exchange rate may reach 42.5-43 hryvnias. That devaluation process may accelerate by the end of summer. Thus, within 100 days, the US currency exchange rate may stabilize at 43 hryvnias.
On the other hand, Dragon Capital analysts are confident that the hryvnia’s decline will be slower than previously expected. By the end of 2025, the dollar exchange rate may reach 44 hryvnias.
The National Bank of Ukraine continues to monitor the devaluation process, aiming to prevent sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. Financial support from international partners is essential for ensuring macroeconomic stability. It is expected that by 2025, the volume of external financing will be sufficient to cover the foreign exchange deficit on the interbank market, allowing the NBU to regulate the exchange rate effectively.
Among the factors affecting the hryvnia exchange rate, the following are distinguished:
- continuation of military operations;
- balance of payments situation;
- inflation level;
- volume of international reserves.
These factors further emphasize the importance of adopting a slow adaptation strategy for the national currency exchange rate to current economic realities.
