Autumn prices for gasoline and diesel: expert voiced a pessimistic forecast

Car owners in Ukraine may be concerned about possible changes in gasoline and diesel prices. Experts are considering factors that may affect this situation.

Gennady Ryabtsev, director of the Psyche Center, noted that fuel prices in the fall will remain under pressure from two main factors: the dollar exchange rate and the price of imported fuel. According to him, a significant decrease in prices should not be expected. “These factors remain unchanged, the cost of oil at the border will be affected by commercial quotes and the national currency exchange rate,” he said.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that from January 1, 2024, the excise tax on fuel will increase, which will also lead to a rise in the price of gasoline for end consumers. “This is not just an increase in taxes for companies, but also an increase in the cost of fuel for drivers,” Ryabtsev emphasized.

According to the expert, one should not expect the hryvnia to strengthen by the end of the year. “We may face a weakening of the national currency,” he added.

But Dmitry Lyushkin, founder of the Prime Group, believes that in late September and early October, we can expect a specific decrease in gasoline and diesel prices by 2 hryvnias per liter, and gas may become cheaper by 1 hryvnia, provided that oil prices on international markets remain stable.

According to the National Bank’s forecasts, at the end of 2025, the cost of fuel in Ukraine may increase by 4%, and in 2026, by 8%.

Ukraine has made changes to the rules for customs clearance of cars, as well as introduced new fines for drivers for violations, which many may not have known about.