Can we count on returning home? A worrying forecast for refugees and Ukraine in the future

The European Commission has not yet seen any clear signs of a stable peace in Ukraine. However, without clear evidence of an end to the conflict, the European Union is preparing for a gradual return of Ukrainians who have left the country, and this process could start as early as this year.

At the beginning of 2025, approximately 4.3 million Ukrainians had received temporary protection in EU countries. According to the European Commission’s forecasts, this figure is expected to remain at roughly the same level throughout the year, then gradually decrease to 4.1 million by the end of 2025 and to 3.8 million by the end of 2026. This suggests that a certain number of Ukrainians will begin to return, although the pace of this process will not be rapid.

The National Bank of Ukraine also confirms these figures. In 2024, approximately 500,000 people left the country, and according to forecasts, about 200,000 more are expected to go in 2025. Significant returns are not expected until 2026 when approximately 200,000 people are expected to return. In 2027, this process may accelerate to half a million returns.

However, whether mass returns will occur depends on several conditions. Experts note that everything depends on the actual outcome of the war, as well as the security and stability in Ukraine. If the conflict drags on or the country does not receive adequate security guarantees, most Ukrainians will remain in other countries for a long time.

Another important aspect is the adaptation of refugees to a new life. Some of them have already found a new home in Europe and do not plan to return. According to the survey, 25% want to stay forever, another 25% intend to return, and the remaining 50% have not yet decided on their plans.

Demographers and economists warn that a quick return will be possible only if real peace is achieved. Otherwise, it could take many years, and the majority of those returning are likely to be retirees and those who were unable or unwilling to adapt abroad.

Whether a large-scale return of Ukrainians will occur remains a question that depends not only on the outcome of the war but also on the state in which Ukraine can restore its security and economy. Otherwise, many of those who left the country may remain far from home, which raises concerns about the country’s future.