The subsistence minimum will increase along with prices: what changes should we expect in the well-being of Ukrainians in the next three years

The Government of Ukraine plans to increase the minimum wage, as outlined in the draft Budget Declaration for the period 2026–2028. According to this document, the minimum will be 8,688 hryvnias in 2026, 9,374 hryvnias in 2027, and 10,059 hryvnias in 2028.

However, at the same time, the depreciation of the hryvnia, controlled inflation, and limited growth in the subsistence minimum are planned. Yaroslav Zheleznyak, Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Tax and Customs Policy of Ukraine, made this report.

So, formally, salaries will increase. However, will citizens feel this? Doubts arise from the fact that the government sets the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar at the end of 2025 at 43.7 hryvnias per dollar and by 2028 – 45.8 hryvnias. Thus, although the nominal salary will increase, purchasing power will decrease.

Examining the dynamics of the subsistence minimum, we can see that in 2026, it will be 3,288 hryvnias; in 2027, it will be 3,482 hryvnias; and in 2028, it will be 3,667 hryvnias. However, in practice, expenses for utilities, food, and medicines will still exceed these figures.

Experts already characterize these forecasts as not optimistic enough. Although inflation is expected to decrease to 5.6% in 2028, it will still erode real incomes. The most important thing is that such figures will not affect the majority of Ukrainians who survive every day.

Experts emphasize that in conditions of war, Ukrainians need not just numbers in reports but a real improvement in living conditions. After all, even if the minimum reaches 10,000, this will not matter at European prices and with limited opportunities for earning money.