Poverty will grow: increasing the “minimum wage” will not help Ukrainians
According to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine’s forecasts, the minimum wage is expected to be 8,647 hryvnias in 2026. However, even this level of payments does not meet the real needs of Ukrainians and may lead to increased poverty.
The actual subsistence minimum for non-disabled persons in June 2025 was 11,464.27 hryvnias, and after taxes, 8,421.94 hryvnias. Therefore, everyone who earns less than this amount officially lives below the poverty line, and the new minimum wage barely covers basic expenses.
According to the government resolution of August 6, the socio-economic forecast for 2026–2028 includes two development scenarios: an optimistic one, which assumes an improvement in the security situation, and a pessimistic one, in the event of prolonged aggression by Russia. The dynamics of wages depend on this.
Under the optimistic scenario, the average monthly salary in Ukraine is projected to increase as follows:
- 2026 — up to 30,240 hryvnias;
- 2027 — up to 35,268 hryvnias;
- 2028 — up to 39,758 hryvnias.
At the same time, in the case of a pessimistic development of events, the forecasts will be slightly lower:
- 2026 — 30,032 hryvnias;
- 2027 — 34,808 hryvnias;
- 2028 — 39,436 hryvnias.
Additionally, the government anticipates a slight increase in the number of employed individuals from 13 million in 2025 to approximately 13.2 million in 2028. However, even wage growth and labor market recovery will not be able to solve the key problem — the lag between the minimum wage and the absolute living standard, which significantly increases the risk of poverty for many Ukrainians.
