Autumn fuel price hike: experts point out risks for the market

The Ukrainian fuel market is facing new challenges: from October 1, supplies from the Romanian port of Constanta may stop. As a result, prices at gas stations may soar to unprecedented heights.

In the autumn of 2025, fuel prices in Ukraine are expected to increase. In addition to the usual factors, such as the euro exchange rate and global oil prices, new sanctions will also play a significant role. As of October 1, the Port of Constanta, which supplies approximately 25% of the country’s diesel fuel, will be subject to restrictions.

According to data from “A-95” and the Ministry of Finance, as of September 17, the average fuel prices are as follows:

A-95+ – 63.26 UAH/l

A-95 – 58.74 UAH/l

A-92 – 56.80 UAH/l

Diesel – 55.89 UAH/l

Autogas – 34.34 UAH/l

Currently, the market is relatively stable, with fluctuations within a few kopecks. However, in the medium term, prices have increased significantly: in 2021, a liter of A-95 cost 25.75 UAH, and by the end of last year, it had risen to 55.90 UAH.

Experts note that it will be challenging to quickly compensate for the volume of supplies from Constanta, which could result in a deficit during peak demand in the autumn and winter months. Serhiy Kuyun, Director of “A-95”, notes that the new restrictions may create additional difficulties, as previously imports through Romania were not subject to the ban.

Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn believes that the situation may worsen if Ukraine finally loses this route. In this case, the market will be forced to reorient itself to Greece, Italy, or Turkey, which will lead to an increase in prices in these regions.

Diesel will become especially expensive, since its supply is under threat. However, the price increase will also affect gasoline and autogas. According to experts’ forecasts, in October, the price of diesel may be 65-70 UAH/l, and for A-95 gasoline, it may be 62-65 UAH/l.

This fall, fuel prices will be affected by two key factors: the hryvnia exchange rate and the cost of imported fuel.