Dollar for 48 hryvnias: experts draw attention to currency fluctuations

Over the next two years, the Ukrainian currency market will remain under control, while according to basic forecasts, the dollar exchange rate may reach 48 hryvnias. This information was announced by Dilyara Mustafayeva, head of the analytical department of the Financial Pulse company, based on assessments by the IMF, the government, and the National Bank of Ukraine.

The expert emphasized that, despite military threats, macroeconomic indicators suggest a gradual stabilization of market conditions.

In the draft budget for 2026, the government plans to set the average annual dollar exchange rate at 45.7 hryvnias, while the IMF predicts 45.4 hryvnias in 2026 and 47.5 hryvnias in 2027. The National Bank of Ukraine does not publish official exchange rate estimates. Still, the October inflation report states that the foreign-exchange deficit in the private sector will remain significant in 2026 and begin to decline in 2027.

According to Mustafayeva, this situation will become possible due to the growth of export revenues, particularly from the agricultural sector, metallurgy, IT services, and certain branches of mechanical engineering. At the same time, imports will gradually decrease, and the reduction in energy supply costs will have a significant impact. An increase in the supply of foreign exchange in the private sector and in investment flows is also expected after 2027, which should restore market participants’ confidence and reduce demand for cash dollars.

International financial assistance plays a key role in currency stability. Ukraine plans to receive more than $45 billion in 2026 and about $39 billion in 2027, which is necessary to avoid issuing budget financing and to overcome the currency deficit.

The main risks that may affect the forecasts remain military operations, including the intensity of shelling and the destruction of infrastructure, which may complicate the obtaining of external financing and reduce production activity. If the situation unfolds as forecast, the dollar exchange rate in 2026–2027 is unlikely to exceed 48 hryvnias. Still, the stability of the currency market will depend directly on developments on the front and support from international partners.

Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn believes that under pressure on the hryvnia, selling the currency is not advisable at the moment, while buying it may be profitable. He predicts that the US dollar will have the highest growth potential in 2026, followed by the euro.

Thus, the situation on the Ukrainian foreign exchange market will remain tense, and changes in the global economy, as well as internal factors, may significantly affect the hryvnia exchange rate.