Dollar for 50: The impact of currency fluctuations on prices in 2026

Attention Ukrainians: forecast of the dollar exchange rate — significant fluctuations and price increases in stores are possible. Experts discuss scenarios for 2026 and their impact on everyday life.

According to the 2026 state budget, the average exchange rate will be 45.7 hryvnias. This figure is used for budget calculations, but the actual rate may change in response to economic conditions and the volume of international aid.

Economist Mykhailo Krapyvko notes that the gap between budget forecasts and the actual market situation can be significant.

“Business already takes into account the exchange rate at the level of 50 hryvnias per dollar,” the expert notes.

As Krapyvko explains, companies set aside a financial buffer to reduce the risk of sudden currency fluctuations.

Another economic analyst, Oleksandr Khmelevsky, comments that the National Bank can regulate the exchange rate, but it can fluctuate between 41 and 50 hryvnias per dollar. The average indicator will deviate in the direction of the declared in the budget.

These changes in the dollar will certainly affect the prices of goods.

“If earlier the dollar exchange rate was at the level of 42 hryvnias, and now – 45, this already means an increase in the cost of goods by approximately 10%,” explains Krapyvko.

An additional factor will be the expansion of VAT for individual entrepreneurs, which can add up to 15% to the cost.

Experts stress that consumers should be prepared for price increases of 10-25% on a wide range of goods, including food, clothing, and electronics. It is recommended not to keep all funds in a single form, but to combine different financial instruments, such as deposits, government bonds, and currency, to create a financial safety cushion.

We will remind you that analysts previously reviewed forecasts for the year-end dollar exchange rate and highlighted the impact of new US tariffs on the foreign exchange market in Ukraine.