Russia intends to occupy four more regions of Ukraine: which cities are under threat?

In Moscow, there are again signals that the Kremlin’s intentions regarding Ukraine go beyond the territories discussed in the Hot Peace Initiatives, encompassing the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions. This is indicated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War.

American analysts focus on the comments of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who stated that the future peace agreement should resolve the issue of “the fate of the population living in Crimea, Novorossiya, and Donbas.” According to ISW analysts, Kremlin representatives consider Novorossiya to be an “integral part” of Russia. The term “Novorossia” refers not only to the annexed four regions and Crimea, but also to the territories of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions. Kremlin officials have repeatedly called Odessa a “Russian” city, discussing the possibility of its inclusion in the Russian Federation.

Meanwhile, the US 28-point peace plan preserves Russian occupation only for Crimea, and also fully covers the territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. The document stipulates that Russia must relinquish control over lands beyond these five regions, including Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

According to analysts, Lavrov’s mention of Novorossiya is not a new condition but rather confirmation that Moscow’s demands are much broader than those expressed in the initial version of the 28-point plan. His statement is likely an attempt to define the position before a possible meeting between US special representative Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin.