Stocks are available, but queues are growing: an expert’s opinion on the fuel market

Dmytro Lyushkin, an expert in the field of fuel and the founder of the Prime company, claims that there are currently no fuel shortages in Ukraine, but demand on the market is increasing, which may lead to higher prices.

As Lyushkin noted, there is enough gasoline and diesel fuel in the country — enough for about 20 days. Despite the absence of problems with fuel availability, the psychological factor remains key. Due to rumors about a possible price increase and instability in world markets, drivers began to actively refuel their cars “in reserve”, which led to queues at gas stations. In some regions, the situation is already being compared to the first weeks of a full-scale invasion.

During the “Vechir.LIVE” program, Lyushkin said that at several gas stations, prices had exceeded 70 hryvnias per liter of fuel. According to his forecasts, if world oil prices remain stable, the price at premium stations may reach approximately 80 hryvnias per liter, while at other networks it will be around 75 hryvnias.

The expert also does not rule out a sharp price rise. In the worst-case scenario, the cost of fuel can rise to 100 hryvnias per liter and even higher. He points out that the demand for fuel in Ukraine remains inelastic: even a significant price increase will not reduce the need for refueling, as transport is integral to business, military operations, and everyday life.

Lyushkin emphasized that even if the price of fuel rises to 100 hryvnias, people will continue to buy it, because driving is a necessity.

Among the reasons for the potential price increase, the expert singles out tensions in the Middle East and risks to oil transportation, including possible restrictions in the region and blocked routes. This is already reflected in world oil prices, which, in turn, affect the Ukrainian market, which relies heavily on imports.

Lyushkin reassures that there is currently no systemic deficit, but notes that soon we should expect a price increase of at least several hryvnias per liter. At the same time, drivers report queues at gas stations and active tank filling, which further stimulate demand.